Renewables, AI and Alt proteins.
Together, renewables and AI form the foundation for a future where our civilization can thrive sustainably and help create a world where abundance is no longer a luxury but a shared reality.
As Californians pick up the pieces after one of the most expensive and destructive wild fires in US history, we are reminded that even the wealthiest cannot escape the consequences of pushing our planetary boundaries beyond their limits. Amongst the many tragedies, one is the realisation that these types of events are becoming more commonplace. Worryingly, every occurrence risks setting us back in our economical and technological progress as we race against Climate Change to reach a sustainable and harmonious balance with our planet.
Indeed we are fortunate enough to live at a time when a number of technologies: Renewable Energy, Artificial Intelligence (AI), Nano and Biotechnology, Cellular Agriculture and many others hold the promise to a truly utopian future. One of abundance with a thriving natural world and healthy, long-living citizens.
As a species, we are on the cusp of taking a giant leap which will entirely transform human civilisation. But reaching the other side is far from guaranteed and making that jump relies firstly on energy.
The dwindling EROI of Oil
Energy Return On Investment, or EROI is the ratio for describing the amount of energy obtained from a particular energy source compared to the amount of energy expended to obtain said energy source. Let's say conventional oil has an average EROI of 10:1. This means that to extract 10 units of energy in the form of conventional oil, we must consume or expend 1 unit. This ratio can vary greatly depending on the location of the energy source: drilling in the Arctic requires far more energy than opportunely stumbling upon a gushing Texan geyser. And this is precisely the point, we’ve picked all the low hanging fruit and must now “drill, baby drill” further and deeper for the predominant energy source that powers our economies.
As a result, oil’s EROI has been declining rapidly and forecasts suggest this trend will continue. Since energy abundance fuels economic growth, innovation, and sustainability efforts, a dwindling EROI could explain the long-term slowdown of global economic growth.
Comparative studies of EROI often favour fossil fuels, but their calculations usually measure oil’s energy output at the point of extraction, omitting refining and transportation costs while counting infrastructure costs for renewables. When adjusted, this study found that no conventional oil product exceeds an EROI of 10, with a median closer to 4.2. Even the Journal of Petroleum Technology anticipates a plateau of 6.7, while other estimates predict 4:1 by the 2030s and then to 2:1 by 2050, dangerously close to the minimum threshold of 3, below which economic and societal collapse becomes probable.
To avoid breaching more planetary boundaries and risking unacceptably low EROIs we must wean ourselves off oil and transfer to renewables within this decade. This may be achievable without a decline in net energy and with our existing resources. But the transition will need to be strategically planned and optimised, leveraging supersized renewable energy capacity and embracing a circular economy.
The Increasing EROI of Renewables
For the sake of argument let's take the conservative renewable EROI numbers from the JPT. Solar yields between 2.5:1 and 10:1, Hydro ranges from 30:1 to 100:1 and Wind from 20:1 to 50:1. Whilst solar’s numbers leave a little to be desired, as materials, technology and processes improve so will the EROI of renewables, eventually reaching zero marginal costs. In fact the combined cost of solar, wind and batteries fell by over 80% between 2010 and 2020, making them the cheapest form of energy since. To solidify this lead, AI applications are further enhancing and expediting improvements through sustainable materials research, charge and discharge cycle optimisation and grid management. And while oil extraction can also undoubtedly benefit from AI, oil is ultimately a finite resource tucked away in increasingly harder to reach places.
Assuming we succeed in the significant challenge of developing fair and unbiased AIs, they could play a role in directly linking innovation to systemic change. Applications could include enforcing and informing government policies; identifying mis- and dis- information; and countering lobby efforts.
With the transition to renewables unlocking the potential for abundant, clean energy, we have a unique opportunity to pioneer other resource-intensive sectors. One of the biggest opportunities lies in our broken food system, where alternative proteins are working to disrupt Big Meat in much the same way renewables are replacing oil.
An overlooked industry in our fight against Climate Change
As a subscriber to this newsletter it won’t be the first time you read how cruel and destructive our food system is. Food and diet unfortunately, are the subject of much heated debate and polarisation. It’s a topic tied up with culture, liberty, individuality, identity, tradition, customs and so much more. A topic as touchy as politics and religion, if not more so.
Therefore it’s not a challenge we can address by appealing to our sense of virtue but rather only by satisfying our craving by other means. This is the premise on which alternative proteins will disrupt Big Meat.
Precision fermentation dairy proteins are already up to 100 times more energy-efficient than the dairy from cows. Not to mention negligible in terms of water use, land use, antibiotic use, pollution and entirely devoid of slaughter and cruelty.
Quorn’s biomass fermentation products also already achieve significant sustainability numbers, with the carbon footprint of some 90% lower than that of beef.
Plant-based meats, though some are energy-intensive through processes like high-moisture extrusion to create fibrous textures, have on average a 50% smaller climate impact than conventional beef.
Cultivated meat, i.e. real cuts of meat grown from cells, is arguably the hardest nut to crack: it faces significant regulatory, economical, technical and cultural challenges. However, huge strides are being made every day and AI stands to optimise every step of its production: from growth media optimisation to palatability to cell line selection to bioreactor design. Unfortunately, with few publicly available studies on the topic there is a need for more researchers with expertise in both fields to come together, thus closing the gap between cultivated meat and AI. Even without these optimisations, running cultivated meat operations on renewable energy alone could produce meat with a 92% smaller greenhouse gas footprint and a 90% smaller land footprint, compared to traditional beef.
Whilst alternative proteins are already the more sustainable and inherently resource-efficient choice over conventional animal products, their full potential will only be reached in earnest when powered by abundant, renewable energy and optimised by AI. At this point, alternative proteins will surpass conventional animal products in taste, cost, nutrients and sustainability to such an extent that they will render animal agriculture obsolete.
Conclusion
AI is being applied everywhere. It currently predicts protein structure, designs mRNA vaccines, drives our cars, simulates antibiotic trials, scans X-rays for cancer, deciphers animal communication and predicts earthquake impacts. The rate of growth we are about to witness in the coming years is both thrilling and terrifying. As if exponential growth wasn’t baffling enough, the speed at which AI is progressing has been described as a double exponential: a constant to the power of an exponential. Its computational power is doubling every six months.
Regardless of whether this is exaggerated or not, it will drive such rapid innovation in every single field that the world as we know it will quickly be left behind. However, if AI is not properly controlled and regulated, it could become a very dangerous tool indeed. Ensuring fairness, transparency, and public benefit is crucial. We must also ensure the fast growing and significant energy demands of AI are met by renewables and not fossil fuels.
However frightening it may seem, we desperately need to move away from our current destructive and exploitative paradigm to prevent the ruin of our planet.
Renewable energy is already the cheapest form of energy, and unlike oil its EROI is increasing. Incumbent industries must help bridge our societies to a post-oil world of abundant green energy capable of supporting a rapidly innovating society and propelling us into the future. Not block our progress for the short-term gain of a corrupt handful of egomaniacal billionaires.
Achieving a harmonious balance with our planet depends on much more than individual technologies. It requires a systemic transformation driven by a synergy of emerging technologies and a parallel cultural shift.
Together, renewables and AI form the foundation for a future where our civilization can thrive sustainably and help create a world where abundance is no longer a luxury but a shared reality for us all. The leap to this future is within our reach, but only if we act decisively and with urgency. Individuals, businesses, and policymakers all have a role to play, whether through supporting sustainable energy, investing in alternative proteins, or advocating for responsible AI.