Amara's Law and Cultivated Meat: A Case of Tech Evolution, Not Failure
As the media dismisses cultivated meat as dead we ask whether this dip in excitement and investment isn’t part of a normal trajectory for all new technologies.
After what can only be described as some truly frantic years, the hype over Cultivated Meat has died down and the very news outlets that benefited from its reporting have now made the industry their favourite punching bag. An endless stream of premature obituaries, disparaging reviews and disheartening updates seem to remind us daily of how flawed and utterly nebulous this cutting-edge technology is.
It is true that the field of Cultivated Meat faces significant hurdles, you don’t disrupt an entire food system overnight and without some amount of hardship. Last month, SCiFi Foods closed down, and both Upside Foods and Aleph Farms reduced their workforce, with the former pausing significant projects. Finless Foods also reduced headcounts as venture capital dries up. No doubt there are many reasons for this: soaring interest rates, overblown promises, outright bans in certain US states, the huge CAPEX requirements for building commercial-stage facilities, the terrifying prospect of another Trump presidency and all the unpredictabilities that come with it. But whilst all of these reasons may contribute to the downturn, are we missing a crucial perspective?
Meet Amara’s Law
Amara's Law, coined after futurist Roy Amara, states: "We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate its effect in the long run.". This happens because our brains struggle to understand exponential growth, as described by the rice and chessboard problem. Amara's Law is well illustrated by the Gartner Hype Cycle, showing the stages innovations go through after their invention.
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The Hype Cycle Consists of five stages:
Innovation Trigger: A new technology is introduced, the media sparks interest in a nascent technology.
Peak of Inflated Expectations: Early publicity generates over-enthusiasm, a rush of funding, huge public interest, unrealistic expectations and many new companies in the field.
Trough of Disillusionment: The technology inevitably fails to meet these unrealistic expectations, progress is happening but not fast enough, and so disillusionment and disappointment sets in.
Slope of Enlightenment: The technology continues to improve steadily, more practical applications are discovered, the technology's potential becomes clearer and mainstream adoption begins in earnest.
Plateau of Productivity: The technology becomes widely adopted, is part of our lives and is no longer novel or contentious. We have market leaders and new entries in the market tend to struggle.
Amara's Law IRL - In Real Life
Amara’s Law is an observation and not a fixed rule. The steps in a technology's cycle aren’t always obvious and are sometimes skipped altogether. The gap between steps can also vary greatly. But when you look into it, pretty much any successful technology you can think of has gone through this cycle in some shape or form.
The Internet
From the 1960’s to 1980’s fundamental technologies lay the groundwork for the creation of the internet - ARPANET, DNS and TCP/IP protocols.
In 1991 Tim Berners introduced the world wide web. A lot of investment rushes in and companies like Ebay and Amazon are created.
The Dot-Com Bubble burst in 2000, causing stock prices to drop and shattering many dreams. Scepticism about the internet and online businesses grew.
By the mid-2000s, with the advent of Web 2.0, we began to understand how to use the Internet more effectively. We see sustainable growth and business models, user-generated content, social media, and the rise of platforms like Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter.
Today, the internet dominates almost every aspect of our lives, a fundamental utility and inconceivable to do without.
Mobile Phones
In 1973 Motorola demonstrated the first handheld mobile prototype.
Text messaging, 2G networks, improved sound quality, more compact and less prohibitively priced devices lead to interest from general public and media hype.
Early 2000s, service remained slow, devices bulky and expensive. The mobile phone generally fails to meet user expectations and disillusionment set in.
Mid 2000s, 3G provides faster speeds, smartphones were introduced in 2007, Apple store and Play Store launched in 2008. Consumers see clear benefits and adoption begins.
Mainstream adoption, the mobile phone has become an indispensable item.
There are many other examples. Highly relevant to today are Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Electric Vehicles (EVs) which are both arguably reaching “The Plateau of Productivity” and steady public adoption. They too went through a period of uncertainty and now 1 in 4 new cars sold globally are electric and 75% of computer-based workers use AI daily.
So how does this relate to Cultivated Meat?
Cultivated Meat spent decades in the background before Mark Post brought it into the public spotlight in 2013. This was arguably the media hype moment that generated much of the excitement and optimism of the late 2010s-early 2020s. We made bold predictions, many idealistic entrepreneurs launched startups, visionary investors poured billions into the industry. All were aligned in revolutionising food production to drastically reduce the environmental impact of meat production and ending animal slaughter.
But as many critics are now pointing out, these grand visions and lofty expectations of affordable, nutritious, lab-grown meat available to all have not yet materialised. High production costs, regulatory hurdles, technical difficulties in scaling up production, consumer acceptance, reaching taste and texture parity have all led to delays and consequently our general scepticism. Critics point to these setbacks as evidence of a failing industry.
However, this is precisely where Amara's Law offers a valuable perspective. The current struggles of the Cultivated Meat industry do not signify failure, rather, they represent a typical phase in the development of any disruptive technology - “The Trough of Disillusionment.”
Going through the motions
In every emerging field a market leader arises: for AI it’s ChatGPT, for mobile phones it was Nokia, for the automobile it was Ford, today, Tesla has made EVs desirable and accessible, single handedly responsible for a large percentage of global EV ownership and most of its mindshare. For Cultivated Meat this could be Upside Food, or Mosa Meats, or a company that hasn’t yet been created. The market is ruthlessly selective, most companies will fail but a leader will emerge.
So, whilst the media goes through its habitual short-sighted dance of blowing hot and cold, and journalists irresponsibly deliver death sentences to an industry that has tremendous potential as a climate solution, fantastic things are happening behind the scenes:
Imperial College opened the Bezos Centre for Sustainable Proteins in June, with a $100 million commitment from the Bezos Earth Fund, it will work to develop and commercialise sustainable protein alternatives.
Investment is still flowing but perhaps more discerningly, with tighter purse strings and more due diligence. Mosa Meat raised €40M and Prolific Machines, which uses light to control cellular processes, raised $55M in the first half of 2024.
Recent surveys show the majority of European consumers are in favour of Cultivated Meat being approved for sale if food regulators find it to be safe and nutritious.
An exciting new report by the UK’s Royal Agricultural University shows a willingness by farmers to adapt and collaborate with the Cellular Agriculture industry.
And not to mention the truly incredible developments in other fields of Cellular Agriculture such as Danone’s partnership with Michelin, Credit Agricole and DMC. The consortium has launched the Biotech Open Platform which will work to scale-up Precision Fermentation production: a clear indication of an industry giant embracing new technology.
Cultivated Meat is just another technology going through the motions. It’s a nascent field which to date has received $3B in total investment. Compare this to EVs which received $275B and $195B for batteries between 2022 and 2023 alone. It still has a way to go.
Companies are jostling to reach the top and bring us a technology that we can later look back upon and struggle to imagine living without. Sit back and let it happen, or if you must do something, promote it and help precipitate a transition to a more sustainable food system.
And now, to end with a quote to dispel any doubt, suspicion and scepticism:
“Every fact of science was once damned. Every invention was considered impossible. Every discovery was a nervous shock to some orthodoxy. Every artistic innovation was denounced as fraud and folly. We would own no more, know no more, and be no more than the first apelike hominids if it weren't for the rebellious, the recalcitrant, and the intransigent.”— Robert Anton Wilson
Sources -
The Revolution That Died on Its Way to Dinner
Leading Lab-Grown Meat Company Cuts Dozens of Jobs | WIRED
I appreciate that you took the time to research and write this article. It gave me a feeling of hope for the future.